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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a peace deal negotiated with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys will submit the documentation to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the conflict remains uncertain, especially given Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president said that the American legislature is expected to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “imminently.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Russian representatives, leading to high-level meetings possibly this weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“The plan involves five documents. Some of them concern security guarantees: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Russia attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European countries said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring maritime security, potentially by conducting operations within its territory.”

However, they did not proposing these actions would constitute guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Russia is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Russian government said it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept forces of Nato countries being stationed in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. One proposal involves Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas region it currently controls, while Ukraine wants to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. As is known, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, headed by two senior advisors, has suggested a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the resulting zone becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has suggested it could use police and national guard formations instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a compromise solution like a free economic zone could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – instability,” said the president, recording the comments after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the Americans,” he concluded.